Fair Observer
fairobserver.com › home › fo° talks: is china’s economy really collapsing or is the west misreading the numbers?
FO° Talks: Is China’s Economy Really Collapsing or Is the West Misreading the Numbers?
December 19, 2025 - China neither teeters on the brink of collapse nor marches toward dominance, but operates as a highly decentralized system adapting unevenly to debt, demography and geopolitical pressure.
International Monetary Fund
imf.org › en › publications › fandd › issues › 2023 › 12 › china-bumpy-path-eswar-prasad
China Stumbles but Is Unlikely to Fall
Unbalanced reforms that have kept the institutional structure weak, a schizophrenic approach to the role of the market versus that of the state, and strains in financial and property markets could result in significant volatility in coming years. But none of this means a financial or economic collapse is inevitable. China’s economic performance has relied largely on investment growth financed by an inefficient banking system.
Is China's economy actually failing?
I feel like every year analyst just say the same thing? I think that you read analysts who all say the same thing. The Chinese economy may be in a bad patch, but I think it's a exaggeration to say that it's "failing". We should remember that slowdowns happen often. More on reddit.com
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August 25, 2025How is the Chinese economy currently doing?
Also, ishowspeed’s China stream tour seemed to be really good press for China as a whole, Speed’s western audience got a glimpse into what China is actually like That tour, on the contrary, shows the problem of China's economy right now: those who suffer the most are invisible, because they are forced out of the narrative and forbidden from providing feedback from bottom up, leading to a collision course that will never correct itself More on reddit.com
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April 6, 2025China’s Economy Stumbles After Unprecedented Slump in Investment
Oh no! Any day now!!!! More on reddit.com
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November 15, 2025CMV: the People's Republic of China has been in decline since COVID.
Aren't the U.S. GDP numbers largely inflated by spending on AI datacenters for chatgpt, copilot, grok, and the other chatbots with little to no practical significance? There may be a lot of money being spent, but I wouldn't say its being properly invested. More on reddit.com
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February 2, 202606:27
China’s DEBT CRISIS Explained, Is The World’s SECOND LARGEST ...
09:28
Will China’s Housing Slump Ever End? - YouTube
06:44
China’s Economy Is Defying Global Uncertainty - YouTube
28:18
The Collapse of China's Economic Miracle - YouTube
Donald Trump is Preparing For a Total Collapse of China's ...
42:28
China’s Hidden Fiscal Crisis Is Breaking the System from Below ...
Center for Strategic and International Studies
csis.org › analysis › chinas-economy-how-bad-it
China's Economy: How Bad Is It? | CSIS
January 31, 2026 - Export growth is also slowing down amid the trade tensions with the U.S. But the economy, obviously, is also not collapsing, and it managed to grow at 5.3 percent in real terms in the first half.
Reddit
reddit.com › r/askeconomics › is china's economy actually failing?
r/AskEconomics on Reddit: Is China's economy actually failing?
August 25, 2025 -
I feel like every year analyst just say the same thing?
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I feel like every year analyst just say the same thing? I think that you read analysts who all say the same thing. The Chinese economy may be in a bad patch, but I think it's a exaggeration to say that it's "failing". We should remember that slowdowns happen often.
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My best sort of rule of thumb for this is going back to the original Dreaming with the BRICs paper from 20 years ago and seeing what they were expecting at the time. And for this period, between 2020-2030, they were estimating China would have an annual growth rate of 4%-5%. And the current growth rate? About 4%-5% Basically they look like a developing economy in the late stages of maturity. Their growth rate is slowing, but that’s what happens when you reach the technological frontier, and it’s happening at a rate one would expect. They may be at risk of falling into the middle income trap, but given how well they’re doing in emerging industries their prospects look pretty good for avoiding it. So that leaves broader questions of balance and institutional resilience, like are they developing a healthy domestic consumer base and a reliable/diverse system of finance. And honestly those are open questions for everyone
GIS Reports
gisreportsonline.com › r › china-deflation
China in a cycle of deflation – GIS Reports
March 14, 2025 - It is important to note that while China’s economy faces significant internal challenges and intense external pressures, it is not on the brink of collapse just yet. The country still has several advantages.
American Enterprise Institute
aei.org › home › when does china stop growing (entirely)?
When Does China Stop Growing (Entirely)? | American Enterprise Institute - AEI
March 5, 2026 - The Chinese economy has been generally weaker than acknowledged in the 2020s. The most frequently discussed solutions, such as stimulating consumption, cannot generate a sizable, sustained impact for more than a year or so.
NYTimes
nytimes.com › 2026 › 04 › 27 › business › china-economy-iran-war.html
The Iran War Is Starting to Expose Cracks in China’s Economy
April 27, 2026 - China’s strategic reserves of oil and natural gas have insulated it somewhat, but its manufacturing-based economy is beginning to falter.
MSN
msn.com › en-us › money › markets › china-s-economic-collapse-is-already-happening-here-s-the-story-unraveling-in-real-time › vi-AA1ArSsO
Real-Time Meltdown: China's Economy Is Falling Faster ...
November 5, 2025 - The detail page will show you the real-time trend, you can click into the MSN Money website for more details
Reddit
reddit.com › r/china › how is the chinese economy currently doing?
r/China on Reddit: How is the Chinese economy currently doing?
April 6, 2025 -
I remember a few months ago, there was talk of the economy crashing and tanking, but it seems to be doing okay so far?
What are your thoughts?
Also, ishowspeed’s China stream tour seemed to be really good press for China as a whole, Speed’s western audience got a glimpse into what China is actually like and it seemed to help boost overall public perception, which could add to China’s economy.
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Basically just ignore all the talk that tell you China is crashing or China is blooming. Things aren’t always that extreme, it’s not doing good right now but far from crashing imo.
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Both positions that China will crash/tanking and China will dominate the world from sensationalist media sources should be dismissed and disregarded. The truth is that currently Chinas economy is doing okay; We can expect moderately high growth of 5-3% over the next seven years to ten years given further untapped potential in sectoral labor reallocation and investment led growth in public and private capital. The main concerns is the lack of reforms being implemented to ensure the transition away from investment led growth into consumption led development. This is particular relevant as total public and private capital public investments within China and its urbanisation now exceeds developed nations and are now experiencing diminishing economic returns each year which will plateau in the next ten years. I am personally unsure if Chinas leadership will make the correct reforms given that consumption led growth will require major reforms in social infrastructure, tax, reallocation of government spending, encouragement of private enterprise and a more free and open society.
Reddit
reddit.com › r/china › china’s economy stumbles after unprecedented slump in investment
r/China on Reddit: China’s Economy Stumbles After Unprecedented Slump in Investment
November 15, 2025 - I have been on the internet long enough to have heard Chinese economy collapsed for decades now. It seems to never happen although we hear it happens every year. Makes me trust there less ... Welcome to the media. “It bleeds it leads” ... Even in metaphor, 'stumble' isn't anywhere near 'collapse'. Anyone who lives in China could tell you the economy has got worse
Asia Times
asiatimes.com › home › the china collapse that just never arrives
The China collapse that just never arrives - Asia Times
June 16, 2026 - For more than a decade, the geopolitical strategist has argued that China’s economy and political system face structural collapse. Demographics will shrink the workforce. Export dependence will undermine growth. In books and interviews, Zeihan’s timeline shifts, but his conclusion remains remarkably consistent. The challenges Zeihan identifies are real. China’s population is aging.
TIME
time.com › ideas › economy › china's economic slump is here to stay
China's Economic Slump Is Here to Stay
February 24, 2026 - Smart Alerts: Get notified about major news as it happens. ... China is in the midst of a profound economic crisis. Growth rates are flagging as an unsustainable mountain of debt piles up; China’s debt-to-GDP ratio reached a record 288% in 2023.
MSN
msn.com › en-us › money › economy › real-time-meltdown-china-s-economy-is-falling-faster-than-expected › vi-AA1ArSsO
Real-Time Meltdown: China’s Economy Is Falling Faster Than Expected | Watch
November 5, 2025 - Once hailed as the world’s unstoppable economic engine, China is now facing a perfect storm: collapsing real estate giants, shrinking exports, soaring youth unemployment, and mounting local debt.
Economics Observatory
economicsobservatory.com › home › how is china’s economy faring?
How is China’s economy faring? - Economics Observatory
August 4, 2025 - China’s economy has suffered from slow consumer spending and a slump in the real estate market. The unpredictable trade war with the United States risks further economic problems, but the current pause in tariff increases plus persistent stimulus from Beijing are keeping the worst outcomes at bay.
Newsweek
newsweek.com › opinion
China’s Economy Is in Deep Trouble | Opinion - Newsweek
February 27, 2025 - Higher figures are also plausible. ... Even if the economy last year grew at the claimed pace, it would not have grown fast enough to pay back debt. And China is now losing altitude.
Big Think
bigthink.com › the-present › chinese-economy-future
Here's why China's economy is stumbling — but not about to fall
June 11, 2024 - Lardy, a nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, is even more optimistic about China’s future. Like Rosen, he believes the Chinese economy is not going to collapse as a result of the housing crisis, that growth will continue at a less astronomic but nonetheless consistent rate, and that the CCP is more or less making the right choices while navigating the crisis.
Fortune
fortune.com › 2026 › 02 › 01 › china-economy-export-led-growth-trade-surplus-real-estate-crash-consumers-deflation
China's export-led growth is looking more and more unsustainable while deflation hits economy | Fortune
February 1, 2026 - Investment in fixed assets reversed sharply into an outright decline, collapsing 15% in December after spiking 15.7% in February. In fact, fixed-asset investment saw its first annual drop in data going back almost three decades.
Vision Times
visiontimes.com › home › china › china’s economy in collapse: ccp insider warns of deepening crisis
China’s Economy in Collapse: CCP Insider Warns of Deepening Crisis - Vision Times
December 21, 2025 - China’s economy continues to deteriorate, marked by a collapsing property sector, the withdrawal of foreign capital, widespread business closures, and surging unemployment. Public frustration is growing rapidly.
Hudson Institute
hudson.org › economics › chinas-economic-slowdown-options-advanced-economies-thomas-duesterberg
China’s Economic Slowdown and Options for the Advanced Economies | Hudson Institute
I argue that because of the way China’s economy is structured, the US and allies, if they muster the political will, can upset the Chinese model and eventually weaken and undermine that model. Whether Donald Trump uses this economic leverage when he meets with Xi Jinping in Mid-May is an open question. Following the near-complete collapse ...
Reddit
reddit.com › r/changemyview › cmv: the people's republic of china has been in decline since covid.
r/changemyview on Reddit: CMV: the People's Republic of China has been in decline since COVID.
February 2, 2026 -
The PRC is currently in an era of decline relative to the western world and is no longer on track to overtake the us or europe and it hasnt been since COVID.
The most obvious indicator of this is the economic statistics. Acording to the PRC itself its gdp went from 18 trillion in 2021 to 19 trillion today. That is roughly 7% growth over the period. While the us went from 23 trillion to 30 trillion over the same period, roughly 30% growth. And the EU went from 16 trillion usd to 22 trillion. About 37% growth over the same period. This shows a china that has fallen behind its rivals and that is only backed up by its population.
China saw its first offical population decline in 2022 as a result of the one child policy, its hard to find any statistics are arent biased, but acorrding to the government projections, chinas population is expected to drop from 1.4 billion to 600 million by the end of the century. Just from natural decline, assuming they dont get into any wars with other powers. This is not a number that would inspire anyone with confidence.
As for the Chinese military, ignoring potential training or command issues coming from the purges, they have a severe disadvantage when it comes to the combat systems needed to fight a real war. Ill focus on naval tech since thats probably the biggest weakness. China's naval tech is still decades behind the west and of their 3 carriers 2 are old soviet designs that were out of date in the 70s and the only one they designed themselves is roughly 60% as capable as a us carrier. In addition in the time it took them to design and biuld it the us biult 2, britian biult 2, and japan biult 1. While they have a larger surface fleet they dont have the capital ships to contest any objective outside their home waters. They are decades behind and cant match either the us or europes carrier fleets.
Diplomatically chinas seen its soft power collapse during and after the pandemic. With a record low of 21% global approval in 2021. While trumps antics have lead to a slight uptick, especially in europe and the developed world. China is still deeply unpopular with the vast majority of the worlds population. Meanwhile in terms of development aid the us overtook china in 2023 and is continuing to dominate in Africa, with notably the DRC signing an alliance with the US late last year and seizing the output of Chinese biult mines to send them to the US.
In all of these fields china has at best stalled out, at worst they have been over taken. Chinese power peaked in 2019.
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Aren't the U.S. GDP numbers largely inflated by spending on AI datacenters for chatgpt, copilot, grok, and the other chatbots with little to no practical significance? There may be a lot of money being spent, but I wouldn't say its being properly invested.
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I feel that a lot of people, especially in America (not a generalization, simply a relative proportionality) have issues looking at the perspective of others, especially when it comes to Asian nations. China is a VERY old civilization, where collectivism existed thousands of years before it did in the West. They're less short term oriented than we are in the West, and incomparibly less than in the USA. The place simply doesn't see the world the way we do, and are not pursuing similar goals or interest. Even if it were to have a small temporary hick-up, due to varying factors, it will see its way out and see it through in a way we can't even fathom here in the West. Also, GDP indicators are broken. Money is broken right now, there is way too much liquidities for the real size and productivity of our economies.