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CERN
home.cern › resources › faqs › five-sigma
Why do physicists mention “five sigma” in their results? | CERN
In the same way, this is how physicists ... point gets smaller and smaller. In the case of the Higgs boson, physicists needed enough data for the statistical significance to pass the threshold of five sigma....
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CERN
home.web.cern.ch › news › news › physics › higgs-within-reach
Higgs within reach | CERN
The Standard Model of particle ... then detect. Both ATLAS and CMS gave the level of significance of the result as 5 sigma on the scale that particle physicists use to describe the certainty of a discovery....
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Medium
medium.com › @chris.m.pease › the-higgs-boson-and-5-sigma-eec238b43f93
The Higgs Boson and 5 sigma. In the summer of 2012, ATLAS and CMS… | by Christopher Pease | Medium
August 7, 2018 - This is extraordinarily small, and with good reason. ... “CMS observes an excess of events at a mass of approximately 125 GeV with a statistical significance of five standard deviations (5 sigma) above background expectations.”
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Understandinguncertainty
understandinguncertainty.org › explaining-5-sigma-higgs-how-well-did-they-do
Explaining 5-sigma for the Higgs: how well did they do? | Understanding Uncertainty
CMS observes an excess of events at a mass of approximately 125 GeV with a statistical significance of five standard deviations (5 sigma) above background expectations. The probability of the background alone fluctuating up by this amount or more is about one in three million.” ... “A ...

elementary particle transmitting the Higgs field giving particles mass

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Know why the Higgs boson is included in the standard model alongside particles like electrons, photons, and quarks
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Higgs boson production
The Higgs boson, sometimes called the Higgs particle, is an elementary particle in the Standard Model of particle physics produced by the quantum excitation of the Higgs field, one of the fields … Wikipedia
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Factsheet
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Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org › wiki › Higgs_boson
Higgs boson - Wikipedia
June 4, 2003 - On 31 July 2012, the ATLAS collaboration presented additional data analysis on the "observation of a new particle", including data from a third channel, which improved the significance to 5.9 sigma (1 in 588 million chance of obtaining at least as strong evidence by random background effects alone) and mass 126.0 ± 0.4 (stat) ± 0.4 (sys) GeV/c2, and CMS improved the significance to 5-sigma and mass 125.3 ± 0.4 (stat) ± 0.5 (sys) GeV/c2. Following the 2012 discovery, it was still unconfirmed whether the 125 GeV/c2 particle was a Higgs boson.
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The Higgs-discovery experiment is a particle-counting experiment. Lots of particles are produced by collisions in the accelerator, and appear in its various detectors. Information about those particles is stored for later: when they appeared, the direction they were traveling, their kinetic energy, their charge, what other particles appeared elsewhere in the detector at the same time. Then you can reconstruct “events,” group them in different ways, and look at them in a histogram, like this one:

[Mea culpa: I remember this image, and others like it, from the Higgs discovery announcement, but I found it from an image search and I don’t have a proper source link.]

These are simultaneous detections of two photons (“diphotons”), grouped by the “equivalent mass” of the pair. There are tons and tons and tons of photons rattling around these collisions, and directional tracking for photons is not very good, so most of these “pairs” are just random coincidences, unrelated photons that happened to reach different parts of the detector at the same time. Because each collision is independent of all the others, the filling of each little bin is subject to Poisson statistics: a bin with events in it has an intrinsic “one-sigma” statistical uncertainty of . You can see the error bars in the total-minus-fit plot in the bottom panel: on the left side, where $N\approx 6000$ events per interval in the top figure, the error bars are roughly events; on the right side, where there is less signal, the error bars are appropriately smaller.

The “one-sigma” confidence limit is 68%. Therefore, if those data were really independently generated by a Poissonian process whose average behavior were described by the fit line, you would expect the data points to be equally distributed above and below the fit, with about 68% of the error bars crossing the fit line. The other third-ish will miss the fit line, just from ordinary noise. In this plot we have thirty points, and about ten of them have error bars that don’t cross the fit line: totally reasonable. On average one point in twenty should be, randomly, two or more error bars away from the prediction (or, “two sigma” corresponds to a 95% confidence limit).

There are two remarkable bins in this histogram, centered on 125 GeV and 127 GeV, which are different from the background fit by (reading by eye) approximately and events. The “null hypothesis” is that these two differences, roughly and , are both statistical flukes, just like the low bin at 143 GeV is probably a statistical fluke. You can see that this null hypothesis is strongly disfavored, relative to the hypothesis that “in some collisions, an object with mass near 125 GeV decays into two photons.”

This diphoton plot by itself doesn’t get you to a five-sigma discovery: that required data in multiple different Higgs decay channels, combined from both of the big CERN experiments, which required a great deal of statistical sophistication. An important part of the discovery was combining the data from all channels to determine the best estimate for the Higgs’s mass, charge, and spin. Another important result out of the discover was the relative intensities of the different decay modes. As another answer says, it helped a lot that we already had a prediction there might be a particle with this mass. But I think this data set shows the null hypothesis nicely: most of ATLAS’s photon pairs come from a well-defined continuum background of accidental coincidences, and the null hypothesis is that there’s nothing special about any of the photon pairs which happen to have an equivalent mass of 125 GeV.

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I think this question may arise from a difference between somewhat rough layman's-terms presentations and the more careful statistics which goes on in the actual labs. But even after a given body of data has been analyzed to death, there is no formal way to capture in full the evidence underlying the way knowledge of physics grows. The evidence surrounding the Higgs mechanism, for example, would not be nearly as convincing if the Higgs mechanism itself were not an elegant combination of ideas which already find their place in a coherent whole.

The hypothesis that one is gathering evidence against is always the hypothesis that we are mistaken as to how a given body of data (such as a peak in a spectrum) came about. The mistake could be quite simple, as for example when in fact the underlying distribution is flat and the peak is an artifact of random noise. But usually one has to consider the possibility that the peak is there but is owing to something else than the mechanism under study. The hypothesis one is testing in the strict sense---the sense of ruling out at some level of confidence---is the set of all other ways we have thought of yet as to how the data could arise. In this set of ways we only need to consider ways that reflect known physics and known amounts of noise etc. in the apparatus.

I think what the community of physicists do is a bit like Sherlock Holmes: we try to think of plausible other ways the data could arise, and then give reasons as to why those other ways can be ruled out. The final step, where we proceed to the claim that the leading candidate explanation is what really happened, is not a step that can be quantified by any statistical measure. This is because it relies not only on a given data set, but also on a judgement about the quality of the theory under consideration.

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CERN Courier
cerncourier.com › home › jobs › five sigma revisited
Five sigma revisited – CERN Courier
July 3, 2023 - Indeed, both preprints use the word “observation” rather than “discovery”. Finally, although 5σ was the required criterion for discovering the Higgs boson, surely a lower level of significance would have been sufficient for the observation ...
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History and origin

According to Robert D Cousins and Tommaso Dorigo, the origin of the threshold origin lies in the early particle physics work of the 60s when numerous histograms of scattering experiments were investigated and searched for peaks/bumps that might indicate some newly discovered particle. The threshold is a rough rule to account for the multiple comparisons that are being made.

Both authors refer to a 1968 article from Rosenfeld, which dealt with the question whether or not there are far out mesons and baryons, for which several effects where measured. The article answered the question negatively by arguing that the number of published claims corresponds to the statistically expected number of fluctuations. Along with several calculations supporting this argument the article promoted the use of the level:

Rosenfeld: "Before we go on to survey far-out mass spectra where bumps have been reported in we should first decide what threshold of significance to demand in 1968. I want to show you that although experimentalists should probably note -effects, theoreticians and phenomenologists would do better to wait till the effect reaches ."

and later in the paper (emphasis is mine)

Rosenfeld: "Then to repeat my warning at the beginning of this section; we are generating at least 100 000 potential bumps per year, and should expect several and hundreds of fluctuations. What are the implications? To the theoretician or phenomenologist the moral is simple; wait for effects."

Tommaso seems to be careful in stating that it started with the Rosenfeld article

Tommaso: "However, we should note that the article was written in 1968, but the strict criterion of five standard deviations for discovery claims was not adopted in the seventies and eighties. For instance, no such thing as a five-sigma criterion was used for the discovery of the W and Z bosons, which earned Rubbia and Van der Meer the Nobel Prize in physics in 1984."

But in the 80s the use of was spread out. For instance, the astronomer Steve Schneider mentions in 1989 that it is something being taught (emphasize mine in the quote below):

Schneider: "Frequently, 'levels of confidence' of 95% or 99% are quoted for apparently discrepant data, but this amounts to only two or three statistical sigmas. I was taught not to believe anything less than five sigma, which if you think about it is an absurdly stringent requirement --- something like a 99.9999% confidence level. But of course, such a limit is used because the actual size of sigma is almost never known. There are just too many free variables in astronomy that we can't control or don't know about."

Yet, in the field of particle physics many publications where still based on discrepancies up till the late 90s. This only changed into at the beginnning of the 21th century. It is probably prescribed as a guidline for publications around 2003 (see the prologue in Franklin's book Shifting Standards)

Franklin: By 2003 the 5-standard-deviation criterion for "observation of" seems to have been in effect

...

A member of the BaBar collaboration recalls that about this time the 5-sigma criterion was issued as a guideline by the editors of the Physical Review Letters


Modern use

Currently, the threshold is a textbook standard. For instance, it occurs as a standard article on physics.org or in some of Glen Cowan's works, such as the statistics section of the Review of Particle Physics from the particle data group (albeit with several critical sidenotes)

Glen Cowan: Often in HEP, the level of significance where an effect is said to qualify as a discovery is , i.e., a effect, corresponding to a p-value of $2.87 \times 10^{−7}$ . One’s actual degree of belief that a new process is present, however, will depend in general on other factors as well, such as the plausibility of the new signal hypothesis and the degree to which it can describe the data, one’s confidence in the model that led to the observed p-value, and possible corrections for multiple observations out of which one focuses on the smallest p-value obtained (the “look-elsewhere effect”).

The use of the level is now ascribed to 4 reasons:

  • History based on practice one found that is a good threshold. (exotic stuff seems to happen randomly, even between to , like recently the 750 GeV diphoton excess)

  • The look elsewhere effect (or the multiple comparisons). Either because multiple hypotheses are tested, or because experiments are performed many times, people adjust for this (very roughly) by adjusting the bound to . This relates to the history argument.

  • Systematic effects and uncertainty in often the uncertainty of the experiment outcome is not well known. The is derived, but the derivation includes weak assumptions such as the absence of systematic effects, or the possibility to ignore them. Increasing the threshold seems to be a way to sort of a protect against these events. (This is a bit strange though. The computed has no relation to the size of systematic effects and the logic breaks down, an example is the "discovery" of superluminal neutrino's which was reported to be having a significance.)

  • Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence Scientific results are reported in a frequentist way, for instance using confidence intervals or p-values. But, they are often interpreted in a Bayesian way. The level is claimed to account for this.

Currently several criticisms have been written about the threshold by Louis Lyons, and also the earlier mentioned articles by Robert D Cousins and Tommaso Dorigo provide critique.


Other Fields

It is interesting to note that many other scientific fields do not have similar thresholds or do not, somehow, deal with the issue. I imagine this makes a bit sense in the case of experiments with humans where it is very costly (or impossible) to extend an experiment that gave a .05 or .01 significance.

The result of not taking these effects into account is that over half of the published results may be wrong or at least are not reproducible (This has been argued for the case of psychology by Monya Baker , and I believe there are many others that made similar arguments. I personaly think that the situation may be even worse in nutritional science). And now, people from other fields than physics are thinking about how they should deal with this issue (the case of medicine/pharmacology).


  1. Cousins, R. D. (2017). The Jeffreys–Lindley paradox and discovery criteria in high energy physics. Synthese, 194(2), 395-432. arxiv link

  2. Dorigo, T. (2013) Demystifying The Five-Sigma Criterion, from science20.com 2019-03-07

  3. Rosenfeld, A. H. (1968). Are there any far-out mesons or baryons? web-source: escholarship

  4. Burbidge, G., Roberts, M., Schneider, S., Sharp, N., & Tifft, W. (1990, November). Panel discussion: Redshift related problems. In NASA Conference Publication (Vol. 3098, p. 462). link to photocopy on harvard.edu

  5. Franklin, A. (2013). Shifting standards: Experiments in particle physics in the twentieth century. University of Pittsburgh Press.

  6. What does the 5 sigma mean? from physics.org 2019-03-07

  7. Beringer, J., Arguin, J. F., Barnett, R. M., Copic, K., Dahl, O., Groom, D. E., ... & Yao, W. M. (2012). Review of particle physics. Physical Review D-Particles, Fields, Gravitation and Cosmology, 86(1), 010001. (section 36.2.2. Significance tests, page 394, link aps.org )

  8. Lyons, L. (2013). Discovering the Significance of 5 sigma. arXiv preprint arXiv:1310.1284. arxiv link

  9. Lyons, L. (2014). Statistical Issues in Searches for New Physics. arXiv preprint arxiv link

  10. Baker, M. (2015). Over half of psychology studies fail reproducibility test. Nature News. from nature.com 2019-03-07

  11. Horton, R. (2015). Offline: what is medicine's 5 sigma?. The Lancet, 385(9976), 1380. from thelancet.com 2019-03-07

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In most applications of statistics there is that old chestnut about 'all models are wrong, some are useful'. This being the case, we would only expected a model to perform at a given level since we are describing some incredibly complicated process using some simple model.

Physics is very different, so intuition developed from statistical models isn't so appropriate. In Physics, in particular particle physics which deals directly with fundamental physical laws, the model really is supposed to be an exact description of reality. Any departure from what the model predicts must be completely explained by experimental noise, not a limitation of the model. This means that if the model is good and correct and the experimental apparatus understood the statistical significance should be very high, hence the high bar that is set.

The other reason is historical, the particle physics community has been burned in the past by 'discoveries' at lower significance levels being later retracted, hence they are generally more cautious now.

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Scientific American
blogs.scientificamerican.com › observations › five-sigmawhats-that
five Sigma
July 17, 2012 - In short, five-sigma corresponds to a p-value, or probability, of 3x10-7, or about 1 in 3.5 million. This is not the probability that the Higgs boson does or doesn't exist; rather, it is the probability that if the particle does not exist, the ...
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Reddit
reddit.com › r/science › higgs boson confirmed at 5-sigma standard deviations at 125 gev
r/science on Reddit: Higgs Boson Confirmed at 5-sigma Standard Deviations at 125 GeV
May 30, 2012 - The scientists at CERN and the LHC have confirmed the existence of the Higgs-Boson to within 5 sigma of certainty (1 in a million chance that it's a mistake) essentially confirming the standard model of fundamental particles (which is essentially ...
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Plus Magazine
plus.maths.org › content › what-are-sigma-levels-0
What are sigma levels? | plus.maths.org
But of course, such an irregularity ... any Higgs boson at all. Sigma levels reflect people's confidence that the result is not just down to chance. The higher the sigma level, the greater that confidence. Particle physicists require a sigma level of at least five to announce ...
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Select-statistics
select-statistics.co.uk › home › posts › one sigma or five?
One Sigma or Five? - Select Statistical Consultants
October 7, 2024 - “the five-sigma concept is somewhat counterintuitive. It has to do with a one-in-3.5-million probability. That is not the probability that the Higgs boson doesn’t exist.
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Physicscentral
physicsbuzz.physicscentral.com › 2012 › 07 › does-5-sigma-discovery.html
PhysicsCentral
Learn about public engagement activities from the American Physical Society
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R-bloggers
r-bloggers.com › the higgs boson: 5-sigma and the concept of p-values
The Higgs boson: 5-sigma and the concept of p-values | R-bloggers
July 4, 2012 - Sigma refers to the population standard deviation, and 5-sigma means that they accept events as statistical significant if they fall more than 5 standard deviations away from the mean, given that the null hypothesis is true.
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CERN
atlas.cern › glossary › standard-deviation
Standard deviation / Sigma | ATLAS Experiment at CERN
Typically, the more unexpected or important a discovery, the greater the number of sigma physicists will require to be fully convinced. Five sigma significance is traditionally required to claim a discovery of a new particle; this was the threshold passed by the Higgs boson when its discovery ...
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ExtremeTech
extremetech.com › home › cern now 99.999999999% sure it has found the higgs boson
CERN now 99.999999999% sure it has found the Higgs boson | Extremetech
March 13, 2023 - In one of the last updates before the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) shuts down until 2015, CERN has announced that its observation of the Higgs boson (or a particle that is Higgs-like) is now approaching 7 sigma certainty.
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ZME Science
zmescience.com › home › features › resources › metascience › what does 5-sigma mean in science?
What does 5-sigma mean in science?
May 3, 2023 - This is where you need to put your thinking caps on because 5-sigma doesn’t mean there’s a 1 in 3.5 million chance that the Higgs boson is real or not. Rather, it means that if the Higgs boson doesn’t exist (the null hypothesis) there’s only a 1 in 3.5 million chance the CERN data is at least as extreme as what they observed.
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Dirnagl
dirnagl.com › 2014 › 07 › 28 › higgs-boson-and-the-certainty-of-knowledge
Higgs’ boson and the certainty of knowledge | To infinity, and beyond!
July 28, 2014 - When the New Scientist reported about the putative confirmation of the Higgs boson, they wrote: 'Five-sigma corresponds to a p-value, or probability, of 3×10-7, or about 1 in 3.5 million.