When we compare Republican to Democratic-leaning counties in Figure 3 we find some · evidence that relative Democratic fertility falls, with an average quarterly effect of 0.087 · births per 1,000 women (0.6% of the 1999 average birth rate).

Finally, Patrick T. Brown noted in an earlier IFS blog post that Republican counties do not significantly differ from Democratic counties in the proportion of babies born to married parents, contrary to years past. So, while Republican counties have higher fertility rates, these babies are not necessarily being born into more stable families. Nonetheless, the growing fertility divide has important political implications. Republicans live in areas where families are larger, and where more voters would directly benefit from policies like the Child Tax Credit.

May 25, 2022 - The use of state controls (and some robustness tests I ran in large states with many counties) suggests this effect isn’t driven by unique features of states: within Red states or Blue states, and controlling for county racial and ethnic characteristics and population densities, Republican counties have higher birth rates. This is particularly astonishing given that Democrats perform very well in counties with many Hispanic and black voters, who have higher birth rates than non-Hispanic white Americans (and indeed, the more non-Hispanic whites in a county, the lower its birth rate in my models).

3 weeks ago - The biennial survey, which has polled roughly 3,000 adults on a wide array of topics for over half a century, saw a steep drop in the number of people of any political affiliation having children between 2018 and 2021, before and after the pandemic. For decades, the fertility rates for both sides of the political coin have generally fluctuated in tandem with one another, and this was evident during the pandemic. Republican politicians are aware that their side has more children.

The birth gap between the states that voted Republican and Democratic in the past presidential election has fallen from about 475,000 births in 2015 to approximately 294,000 births in 2023.

The use of state controls (and some robustness tests I ran in large states with many counties) suggests this effect isn’t driven by unique features of states: within Red states or Blue states, and controlling for county racial and ethnic characteristics and population densities, Republican counties have higher birth rates. This is particularly astonishing given that Democrats perform very well in counties with many Hispanic and black voters, who have higher birth rates than non-Hispanic white Americans (and indeed, the more non-Hispanic whites in a county, the lower its birth rate in my models).

The paper’s authors find that this difference between Republican versus Democratic babies conceived in the first two years of the Trump presidency amounts to between 1 and 2% of the national birth rate.

October 7, 2024 - From the article: A study published in the Journal of Marriage and Family has found that political identity is increasingly influencing the number of children young adults desire to have. Spanning three decades, the research found that young Republicans consistently expressed a stronger desire for larger families compared to their Democratic counterparts, with this gap widening over time.

October 31, 2024 - The birth gap between the states that voted Republican and Democratic in the past presidential election has fallen from about 475,000 births in 2015 to approximately 294,000 births in 2023.

July 8, 2022 - “The gap is actually 41 percent.” Data on the U.S. birth rate from the General Social Survey confirms this trend — a random sample of 100 conservative adults will raise 208 children, while 100 liberal adults will raise a mere 147 kids.

2 weeks ago - So, you have a political bloc that is socially and economically influential, voting Democrat in large numbers, but not (at least not yet) reproducing enough to replace themselves. That means that over time, their numerical weight among voter-eligible adults may remain high, but their share among younger-generation families may shrink relative to groups with higher fertility rates.

September 20, 2007 - In 2023, 43% of U.S. adults identified as independents, tying the record high from 2014. Meanwhile, Democratic identification fell to a new low of 27%.

1 day ago - So Sarah, just start by telling us, what is the connection between where people fall on the political spectrum and the number of kids they have? MCCAMMON: Yeah. So several studies in recent years have pointed to higher fertility rates in red states, and that's especially true since the COVID pandemic.

June 21, 2024 - Only one age cohort stood out as different – those born in the 1960s (then in their 30s) were more Republican, on balance, than other age groups. Ten years later, in 2009, the then-youngest age cohort (people born in the 1980s, then in their 20s) was clearly more Democratic-oriented than older groups, but there was little difference between the older cohorts (though those born in the 1960s remained slightly more Republican than both groups older and younger than them).

December 19, 2024 - I believe women’s education is a high predictor of tfr, and democrats are significantly more educated right now. ... That used to be the case, but it has changed now. American women with graduate degrees have more children than women with a high school diploma or less. Groups that used to have lots of children (poor people and those with less education) have seen their birth rates collapse.

Relative to Democratic counties, this amounts to roughly 23,000 · more births to mothers in Republican counties in the year following the election.