When we compare Republican to Democratic-leaning counties in Figure 3 we find some · evidence that relative Democratic fertility falls, with an average quarterly effect of 0.087 · births per 1,000 women (0.6% of the 1999 average birth rate).

The paper’s authors find that this difference between Republican versus Democratic babies conceived in the first two years of the Trump presidency amounts to between 1 and 2% of the national birth rate.

Finally, Patrick T. Brown noted in an earlier IFS blog post that Republican counties do not significantly differ from Democratic counties in the proportion of babies born to married parents, contrary to years past. So, while Republican counties have higher fertility rates, these babies are not necessarily being born into more stable families. Nonetheless, the growing fertility divide has important political implications. Republicans live in areas where families are larger, and where more voters would directly benefit from policies like the Child Tax Credit.

October 31, 2024 - The birth gap between the states that voted Republican and Democratic in the past presidential election has fallen from about 475,000 births in 2015 to approximately 294,000 births in 2023.

3 weeks ago - In a powerful speech, President Trump highlighted unprecedented accomplishments: a fully secure border, plummeting inflation, falling gas prices and crime rates, surging stock markets and 401(k)s, massive tax relief for working Americans, and bold actions to restore peace through strength abroad. This was a speech of renewal and resolve — yet congressional Democrats, consumed by delusional hatred and obstruction, refused to join in celebrating these victories for the American people.

February 4, 2026 - In each survey, Gallup asks U.S. adults whether they identify politically as a Republican, a Democrat or an independent. The recent increase in independent identification is partly attributable to younger generations of Americans (millennials and Generation X) continuing to identify as independents at relatively high rates as they have gotten older.

October 7, 2024 - From the article: A study published in the Journal of Marriage and Family has found that political identity is increasingly influencing the number of children young adults desire to have. Spanning three decades, the research found that young Republicans consistently expressed a stronger desire for larger families compared to their Democratic counterparts, with this gap widening over time.

The use of state controls (and some robustness tests I ran in large states with many counties) suggests this effect isn’t driven by unique features of states: within Red states or Blue states, and controlling for county racial and ethnic characteristics and population densities, Republican counties have higher birth rates. This is particularly astonishing given that Democrats perform very well in counties with many Hispanic and black voters, who have higher birth rates than non-Hispanic white Americans (and indeed, the more non-Hispanic whites in a county, the lower its birth rate in my models).

The birth gap between the states that voted Republican and Democratic in the past presidential election has fallen from about 475,000 births in 2015 to approximately 294,000 births in 2023.

May 25, 2022 - The use of state controls (and some robustness tests I ran in large states with many counties) suggests this effect isn’t driven by unique features of states: within Red states or Blue states, and controlling for county racial and ethnic characteristics and population densities, Republican counties have higher birth rates. This is particularly astonishing given that Democrats perform very well in counties with many Hispanic and black voters, who have higher birth rates than non-Hispanic white Americans (and indeed, the more non-Hispanic whites in a county, the lower its birth rate in my models).

Relative to Democratic counties, this amounts to roughly 23,000 · more births to mothers in Republican counties in the year following the election.

December 16, 2025 - While neither party has an overwhelming advantage among any age group, U.S. adults under 50 currently tilt Democratic, while those ages 50 and older tilt Republican. The youngest group of adults – those ages 18 to 29 today – are fairly evenly split between the two parties.

According to a 2023 survey, Americans between 18 and 29 years of age were more likely to identify with the Democratic Party than any other surveyed age group. While 39 percent identified as Democrats, only 14 percent identified ad Republicans.

The top 20% of counties that voted for Harris had a TFR of 1.37. State-level data reveals a similar relationship between partisanship and fertility. Democratic states have much lower fertility rates than Republican states.

Figure 9. Hispanic vote share received by Republican and Democratic presidential · candidates (1980-2012) ......................................................................................................54 ... In mid-2004, the U.S. media noticed a curious trend: President Bush held a strong · advantage in states with high birth rates. That year saw a spate of articles commenting on · a “Fertility Gap” between ...

July 8, 2022 - “The gap is actually 41 percent.” Data on the U.S. birth rate from the General Social Survey confirms this trend — a random sample of 100 conservative adults will raise 208 children, while 100 liberal adults will raise a mere 147 kids.

August 15, 2024 - It is true that birth rates have declined significantly in the U.S.—although ours remain higher than those in many other Western and wealthy nations. But the reasons why fewer Americans are having children, and the ways in which we should think about it, are complex and myriad.

November 19, 2012 - Celinda Lake, one of the Democratic party’s leading pollsters and strategists, who predicted the single ladies swing well before the exit polls, told me our future partisan fertility map is being redrawn. She says that as birth rates rise amongst women of color who vote consistently Democrat, the states working blue may make a radical turn to become our most fertile ones.

October 20, 2024 - I believe women’s education is a high predictor of tfr, and democrats are significantly more educated right now. ... That used to be the case, but it has changed now. American women with graduate degrees have more children than women with a high school diploma or less. Groups that used to have lots of children (poor people and those with less education) have seen their birth rates collapse.

November 22, 2024 - “Republican states (those that Trump won in 2020) generally have markedly higher fertility rates than Democratic ones (those that Biden won), suggesting that more men and women feel confident about starting and raising families in red states ...