9 hours ago - 2026 US midterm forecast. Democrats have an estimated 83% chance of controlling the House and 60% chance of controlling the Senate. Explore simulated elections, seat ranges, pivotal races and polling-error scenarios.

1 day ago - In a forecasting special issue of PS: Political Science & Politics for the US midterm elections, all forecasters predict that the Democrats will capture the House of Representatives, but are split on who will emerge victorious in the Senate.

16 hours ago - But they’re clinging to the possibility that it could be a typically bad midterm year reminiscent of 2022, when polls projected Democrats would be pummeled, only for those predictions to fall short.

8 hours ago - They are typically based on 40,000 simulations and include a small amount of sampling error. FLIPR models House, Senate and gubernatorial elections jointly, meaning that we can calculate the probability of things like Republicans holding the ...

13 hours ago - As of October 14, 2026, Kalshi traders give Democrats a 90% chance of winning the House in the 2026 midterms, and Republicans a 10% chance. Those odds are the live prices of each party's contract on Kalshi, and they move as traders buy and sell.

1 day ago - One election model updated Tuesday, Call the Map, gave Democrats an 81% chance of winning the House and a 55% chance of controlling the Senate.

4 hours ago - Republicans hold a narrow House majority of 219 seats to Democrats' 214, with one independent (Rep. Kevin Kiley of California, who left the Republican Party in March 2026 but still caucuses with Republicans) and two vacant seats.

5 days ago - Prediction markets have moved sharply ... win the 2026 midterms, the odds are have grown to 63% in favor of a Democratic Party sweep to win in both the Senate and the House....

By Adam Wren, Meredith Lee Hill and Will Steakin | October 12, 2026 06:55 AM · Brian Fitzpatrick won by 13 points in 2024. Now, Democrats smell blood in the water. An internal poll conducted by Democratic pollsters finds Fitzpatrick and challenger Bob Harvie tied among likely voters.

3 weeks ago - It could not only help increase ... Florida has 30 electoral college votes up for grabs. Both Gov. Ron DeSantis and Trump won landslide victories in 2022 and 2024....

2 weeks ago - Morris’ forecast is substantially, predicting a 34-seat gain for Democrats and a firm majority in the House. In essence, Morris is saying that if factors such as presidential approval, generic support for each party, and self-reported vote ...

2 days ago - Most signs point towards a successful midterms for the Democrats, but it wouldn't be the first time that Trump and his party have outperformed polls if they do win more seats than expected.

10 hours ago - Cook Political Report moved the ... now call it a toss-up. A House Majority PAC poll by Impact Research (Aug 24-31) had Dandiya up 46–44. Florida 25thU.S. HOUSEToss-Up · Incumbent: Jared Moskowitz (D) · seeking re-election ...

3 weeks ago - The White House’s posture represents a remarkable change for an administration that has often put Trump’s priorities ahead of what would be politically advantageous to Republicans in tight elections. President Donald Trump greets supporters before speaking at a campaign rally with North Carolina Republican Senate candidate, former RNC Chair Michael Whatley, at Gastonia Municipal Airport on September 16, 2026, in Gastonia, North Carolina. | Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images ... The White House is in triage mode. Six weeks until the midterm elections, administration officials are pulling policy levers they otherwise might not to help vulnerable Republicans in key congressional races. They’re weighing a 90-day ban on diesel exports in an effort to drive down energy prices, considering backpedaling on a plan to import foreign beef and giving candidates wiggle room to criticize a war with Iran that President Donald Trump continues to stress was necessary to prevent the country from obtaining nuc

2 weeks ago - Prediction markets show Democrats have a 93% chance of winning the House, while Republicans are at 8%. In the Senate, Democrats hold a 63% chance compared to 38% for Republicans. The House market shows projected control of 161 Republican seats ...

2 weeks ago - Some of Democrats’ once-hateable figures are out of the picture. And emerging democratic socialists haven’t made for strong lines of attack nationwide.

6 hours ago - This national environment has driven rating shifts toward Democrats in House and Senate contests, with forecasters projecting Democratic House control in the 80–93% range and Senate control near 55–75%. Democrats need roughly four net Senate ...

We will provide data for use on MS NOW shows and websites, and build custom polling and election interactives for the midterms

2 hours ago - Who will control the House in 2026? Kalshi odds: Democrats 90%, Republicans 10%. All 435 House seats are up on November 3; 218 wins a majority.

14 hours ago - Polymarket currently lists 4.4K markets in the Politics category, with 1.2K of those in Midterms alone. The left-side navigation shows live market counts for every subcategory, including Midterms, House Elections, and US Election, so you can quickly see where coverage is deepest.