Jean M. Twenge has concluded that non-heterosexual identity is in free fall among U.S. young adults, based on newly available nationally representative data. Her analysis, published on November 5, 2025, and updated in a follow-up post on March 3, 2026, shows a significant decline in self-identification as lesbian, gay, or bisexual (LGB) among young adults, with bisexual women showing the largest drop. This trend appears to be part of a broader shift, as Twenge also found sharp declines in transgender and nonbinary identity among 18- to 22-year-olds and teens as young as 13. She attributes the drop to possible changes in social acceptance, mental health improvements, or a fading of social trends, though she cautions that long-term patterns will only be clear with future data. Her findings are based on the Cooperative Election Study (CES) and the Monitoring the Future survey, though some researchers have questioned the use of statistical weights in the analysis.

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Substack
generationtechblog.com › p › non-heterosexual-identity-is-in-free
Non-heterosexual identity is in free-fall among U.S. young adults
1 day ago - Last fall, researcher Eric Kaufmann concluded that “trans identification is in free fall among the young.” His declaration was a little premature – his sources measured identifying as non-binary, not transgender, and were not nationally ...
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Substack
generationtechblog.com › p › identifying-as-nonbinary-is-in-free
Identifying as nonbinary is in free fall among teens as young as 13
November 5, 2025 - Professor Eric Kaufmann found that identifying as nonbinary or gender queer was “in free fall among the young” in his analysis of elite college students in the U.S., garnering millions of views on X. I then found a sharp decline in young adults identifying as transgender or nonbinary between 2023 and 2024 ...
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Vox
vox.com › politics
Is trans identity “in free fall” among America’s youth? | Vox
November 4, 2025 - A few days later, Jean Twenge, a professor of psychology at San Diego State University, posted on X that “trans identification really is in free fall among the young,” citing data from the Cooperative Election Study, a long-running survey ...
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The Daily Caller
dailycaller.com › opinion › america's fakest community falling apart
America’s ‘Non Binary’ And ‘Trans’ Community Falling Apart At Seams | The Daily Caller
October 21, 2025 - It turns out … trans identification really is in free fall among the young. So is nonbinary identity. See below from a nationally representative survey (the CES). @epkaufm was right.
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Daily Mail
dailymail.co.uk › news › article-15212607 › Young-Americans-transgender-nonbinary-study-free-fall.html
Young Americans identifying as trans or nonbinary in free fall as experts pinpoint what's behind the shift | Daily Mail Online
October 22, 2025 - On Substack, where Twenge shared her CES data analysis, she wrote: 'It turns out identifying as transgender really is in free fall among the young in the US.
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Substack
generationtechblog.com › p › trans-identification-really-is-in
Trans identification really is in free fall: New data
October 20, 2025 - Jean M. Twenge ... A firestorm erupted last week when Prof. Eric Kaufmann made a bold claim: Identifying as transgender is “in free fall among the young.”
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TownHall
townhall.com › tipsheet › jeff charles › here's some not-so-shocking data about trans-identified youth
Here's Some Not-So-Shocking Data About Trans-Identified Youth
October 23, 2025 - The report also notes that “The ... and “The share of students identifying as not heterosexual fell by around 10 points in the same period.” · You Cannot Make Up What Jasmine Crockett Said During Texas' Primaries Last Night Matt Vespa · It turns out ... trans identification really is in free fall among the young...
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Stevestewartwilliams
stevestewartwilliams.com › p › fewer-young-people-are-identifying
Fewer Young People Are Identifying as Non-Binary or Non-Heterosexual
October 15, 2025 - Much of this centered on the issue ... non-heterosexual identities. But psychologist and Substacker Jean Twenge has since uncovered other data suggesting trans identification is indeed declining as well....
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Fox News
foxnews.com › health › number-young-adults-identifying-transgender-plunges-nearly-half-two-years
Sharp decline in young adults identifying as transgender, non-binary, analysis finds | Fox News
Professor Jean Twenge's research confirms Eric Kaufman's findings that transgender identification among 18- to 22-year-olds dropped nearly in half from 2022 to 2024.
Published   October 22, 2025
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Substack
graphsaboutreligion.com › p › the-sharp-decline-in-transgender
The Sharp Decline in Transgender Identification Among Young Adults
December 15, 2025 - Then Jean Twenge ran the same analysis on college-aged respondents in the Cooperative Election Study and came to a very similar conclusion — the share of 18–22-year-olds who identified as transgender has dropped noticeably between 2022 and 2024.
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WORLD
wng.org › home › world opinions › transgender free fall
Transgender free fall | WORLD
October 29, 2025 - It then declined significantly (almost by half) in the second half 2024 to nearly 2021 levels of 2%. Twenge observes, “It appears identifying as transgender peaked in early 2024 among younger adults even at the population level.” But she ...
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Dr. Jean Twenge
jeantwenge.com › home › research
Research - Dr. Jean Twenge
May 25, 2025 - Twenge, J. M., Wells, B. E., Le, J., & Rider, G. N. (2024). Increases in self-identifying as transgender among U.S. adults, 2014-2022.
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Religion Unplugged
religionunplugged.com › news › the-sharp-decline-in-transgender-identification-among-young-adults
The Sharp Decline In Transgender Identification Among Young Adults
December 20, 2025 - Then Jean Twenge ran the same analysis on college-aged respondents in the Cooperative Election Study and came to a very similar conclusion — the share of 18–22-year-olds who identified as transgender has dropped noticeably between 2022 and 2024.
Address   United States
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Skeptic
skeptic.com › article › transgenderism-is-in-rapid-decline-among-young-americans
Transgenderism Is in Rapid Decline Among Young Americans
November 11, 2025 - These findings echoed the Census Bureau’s official Household Pulse survey, which revealed a large decline in youth non-binary identification in the first half of 2024. More than that, Twenge found, as I did, that the youngest cohorts were ...
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SEGM
segm.org › transgender-identification-college-youth
Transgender identification in college youth is at an all-time high but may be reaching a plateau | SEGM
To describe this as a "free fall" in transgender identification among youth is too strong. ... Twenge derives the nonbinary trend from responses to “What is your gender?” with options “man,” “woman,” “nonbinary,” and “other.” ...
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PubMed Central
pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov › articles › PMC12260785
Stability and Change in Gender Identity and Sexual Orientation Across Childhood and Adolescence - PMC
It is undoubtedly the case that more young people (including those in the study and those not in the study) use the term nonbinary and/or use they/them pronouns than did when we began the study (Twenge, 2024). The Recruited as Siblings group (N = 218) consists of siblings of youths in the Recruited as Transgender group, all of whom were cisgender at the beginning of their participation in the TYP. Inclusion of the Recruited as Transgender group's siblings allows us to infer that differences between participant outcomes among youths in the two groups are likely not due to being raised in different household contexts, local communities, or political environments.
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Northwestern Feinberg
news.feinberg.northwestern.edu › home › one in four u.s. adolescents identify as non-heterosexual, comparative analysis finds
One in Four U.S. Adolescents Identify as Non-Heterosexual, Comparative Analysis Finds - News Center
June 21, 2024 - From 2019 to 2021, the investigators identified a significant decrease in youth who identified as heterosexual (84.5 percent versus 74.7 percent), an increase those who identified as gay or lesbian (2.5 percent versus 3 percent) and an increase ...
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Persuasion
persuasion.community › p › transgender-identity-really-has-fallen
Transgender Identity Really Has Fallen Among Young People
October 22, 2025 - Jean M. Twenge ... A firestorm erupted last week when the British professor and commentator Eric Kaufmann made a bold claim: Identifying as transgender is “in free fall among the young.”
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Substack
generationtechblog.com › p › is-transgender-identity-really-declining
Is transgender identity really declining among young adults?
October 16, 2025 - By late 2024, though, identifying as transgender had fallen to 2.6%, a little less than in early 2022 (see Figure 1).