Trump Wants It, I’m Buying It: The 13-Billion-Barrel Asymmetry in Greenland ($PELI)

By 5 to 9 M.J.

Remember when Donald Trump said he wanted to buy Greenland? The media treated it like a joke. They made memes about gold towers on icebergs and moved on.

I didn't laugh. I looked at a map.

When a superpower explicitly tells you they covet a specific piece of territory, you should probably ask why. The answer isn't just about strategic shipping lanes or sticking a flag in the snow. It’s about resources. Massive, untapped, sovereign-scale resources.

While the world was busy tweeting, I went hunting for a way to play this theme. I wasn't looking for a safe, dividend-paying utility. I was looking for a "wildcat" bet, something with the kind of asymmetry that can make a portfolio or break it.

I found it hiding in a SPAC.

Right now, there is a small, obscure company called Pelican Acquisition Corp ($PELI) that is about to merge with Greenland Energy. They are sitting on licenses that cover a basin with a potential 13 billion barrels of oil. The market is valuing this opportunity at roughly $215 million.

If the geologists are wrong, this goes to zero. But if they are right? We are looking at one of the most explosive energy plays of the decade.

1. First, Let’s Clear Up the "Identity Crisis"

Before I even get into geology, I need to address the elephant in the room: the ticker confusion.

In my research, I found that a lot of retail investors, and even some institutions, are mixing up the merger target with Greenland Technologies Holding Corp (NASDAQ: GTEC). Let me be crystal clear: GTEC makes drivetrains for forklifts. They have absolutely nothing to do with this deal.

The company I am interested in is Greenland Energy Company, a new entity focused on oil exploration in East Greenland. It doesn't trade yet. To get exposure, you have to buy the SPAC, Pelican Acquisition Corp (NASDAQ: PELI). Once the merger closes, expected in early 2026, PELI will become Greenland Energy and list under the ticker GLND.

Do not buy the forklift company expecting to strike oil.

2. The Thesis: A $215 Million Ticket to a "Super-Giant" Basin

So, why am I interested? The thesis rests on one staggering number: 13 billion barrels.

That is the un-risked P10 resource estimate for the Jameson Land Basin in East Greenland. The implied enterprise value of this deal is roughly $215 million. You don't need a calculator to see the asymmetry there.

Here is the backstory that really caught my attention. This isn't some random patch of ice. In the 1980s, ARCO (Atlantic Richfield Company) spent the inflation-adjusted equivalent of $275 million analyzing this basin. They built an airfield (which is still there) and shot over 1,800 km of seismic data. They identified massive structures but walked away in 1990 without drilling a single well because oil prices crashed below $10/barrel.

Essentially, Greenland Energy is getting ARCO’s $275 million "gift" for free. They have reprocessed that old 80s data with modern algorithms, allowing them to see the subsurface with clarity ARCO never had.

3. The Partners: Who is Paying for the Drill?

I always look at who has skin in the game. The structure here is fascinating.

• The Operator: The deal is being driven by March GL, led by veteran oilman Robert Price. They are the ones putting up the money.

• The Partner: There is a UK-listed company called 80 Mile PLC (AIM: 80M) involved. They own the licenses but couldn't afford to drill alone. So, they farmed it out to March GL.

• The Deal: March GL is funding 100% of the costs for the first two wells to earn a 70% stake.

This is crucial for us as investors. If we buy into GLND (via PELI), we are buying the operator who controls the project and pays the bills. If you want a "free ride," you could look at 80 Mile PLC, which gets carried for 30% of the upside without paying for the drilling.

4. The Geopolitical Angle: The Trump Factor

You can't talk about Greenland without talking about politics. In 2021, the Greenlandic government announced a ban on new oil exploration. Sounds bad, right?

Actually, it’s my favorite part of the thesis. The ban only applies to new licenses. Greenland Energy’s licenses are grandfathered in. This effectively gives them a state-sanctioned monopoly. No other oil major can come in and compete.

Plus, there is the US strategic angle. We all remember the headlines about the US wanting to "buy" Greenland. The US sees the Arctic as a critical flank against China and Russia. By domesticating Pelican from the Cayman Islands to Texas, the company is aligning itself with US energy interests. If they find oil, I suspect they will have significant political "top cover" from Washington.

5. The Risks: The Ice and the SPAC Trust

I’m not going to sugarcoat this. This is a high-risk play.

1. The SPAC Redemption Loop: SPACs have been brutal lately. Shareholders can redeem their cash (~$10.18/share) before the merger closes. If redemptions are high (say, 90%), the trust account could shrink from ~$87 million to less than $9 million. However, March GL has a contractual obligation to fund the drilling regardless of the SPAC trust, which acts as a backstop.

2. The Logistics: We are talking about the Arctic. There is a narrow window in the summer to ship in equipment. If they miss that window, the project slips a year.

3. The "Seal Failure": The basin has oil, we know because it literally seeps out of the ground. But that can be a double-edged sword. If the geological seal is broken, the oil might have leaked out millions of years ago.

6. The Valuation Blueprint: How to Price a "Wildcat"

Let’s get one thing straight before we take a look at the financials: investing in Greenland Energy (GLND) is not about P/E ratios or revenue growth. If you are looking for safe, steady earnings in 2026, close this tab. The company will generate exactly zero revenue this year.

Financially, I view GLND as a leveraged call option on the existence of recoverable oil in the Jameson Land Basin. The stock price isn't going to move based on quarterly earnings beats; it’s going to move based on the Net Asset Value (NAV) of what lies beneath the ice.

Here is how I’m modeling the market cap from the merger close through the first drill.

6.1. The Starting Line: What Are We Paying?

To figure out where the stock can go, I first need to know the starting lineup. Based on the definitive agreement, here is the pro forma capitalization when the merger closes (expected Jan/Feb 2026):

• The Insiders (March GL): 20.0 million shares.

• The Partner (Greenland Exploration): 1.5 million shares.

• The Public (Us): ~8.6 million shares (assuming the trust stays mostly intact).

• The Sponsors: ~3.5 million shares (estimated).

The Math:

• Total Shares: ~33.6 Million.

• Price: $10.00 (SPAC NAV).

• Market Cap: ~$336 - $340 Million.

• Enterprise Value (EV): ~$250 Million (Market Cap minus the ~$86M cash pile).

My Take: The market is essentially asking us to pay $250 million today for the rights to 70% of a potential 13-billion-barrel reservoir. That works out to roughly $0.02 per barrel of un-risked resource. This dirt-cheap entry price tells me one thing: the market is terrified of the geological risk.

6.2. Phase I: The "Hype Cycle" (H1 - H2 2026)

Timeline: Merger Close to Spud (Drilling Start)

This is my favorite part of the trade. In the months leading up to a massive frontier drilling campaign, stocks like this rarely trade on fundamentals, they trade on hope. We call this the "Pre-Drill Run-Up."

I look at peers for a sanity check. When ReconAfrica (RECO) was drilling its frontier basin in Namibia, the stock surged from ~$50M to over $1.5 Billion purely on the anticipation of results. Similarly, Pantheon Resources (PANR) trades around $400M+ while appraising its Alaskan finds.

My Forecast:

As GLND ships its rig to East Greenland in Summer 2026 and the PR machine starts shouting "13 Billion Barrels," I expect the speculative premium to kick in.

• Target Market Cap: $500 Million – $750 Million

• Implied Share Price: $15.00 - $22.00

6.3. Phase II: The "Jackpot" Scenario (2027+)

Timeline: Post-Drilling Results

This is the binary event. If the 2026 drilling campaign hits oil, the valuation model flips from "Prospective Resources" (theoretical paper barrels) to "Contingent Resources" (real oil in the ground).

Industry standard valuations for discovered resources in frontier locations usually run between $1.00 to $4.00 per barrel. Even applying a steep discount for the Arctic logistics, the numbers get silly very fast.

• Scenario A: The "Base Hit" (500 Million Barrels) If they find a modest field (for this basin), GLND’s 70% share is 350 million barrels. At $3.00/bbl, that’s a $1.05 Billion market cap (~$31/share).

• Scenario B: The "Company Maker" (2 Billion Barrels) If they prove up just ~15% of their P10 estimate, GLND’s share is 1.4 billion barrels. At $3.00/bbl, we are looking at a $4.2 Billion market cap (~$125/share).

Reality Check: If they find 2 billion barrels, I don't think GLND stays independent. A major like Exxon or Shell would likely buy them out, because developing a field that size costs $10B+, which GLND doesn't have.

6.4. Phase III: The Long Game (2029-2030)

Timeline: First Oil

I get asked about "Revenue" a lot. Let’s be real: massive oil projects move at the speed of government permits.

• 2026: Discovery.

• 2027-2028: Appraisal (figuring out how big it is).

• 2029+: Building pipelines and pumping oil.

If we fast-forward to a world where GLND is pumping a conservative 50,000 barrels per day, the math suggests over $1.2 Billion in annual revenue and ~$760 Million in EBITDA. Slap a 6x multiple on that, and you are back at that $4.5 Billion valuation.

The Cheat Sheet: My Valuation Targets

The Warning Label

I cannot stress this enough: The difference between the $125.00 upside and the $1.50 downside relies entirely on the geological success of two wells in 2026. There is no revenue floor. There is no dividend safety net.

This is a binary outcome event. Position size accordingly.

My Verdict: A Speculative Buy

Here is my plan: I am watching the merger close in early 2026. I expect drilling to start in the second half of 2026. If they hit, we are looking at a potential 10x-20x return. If they miss, the stock goes to zero.

This isn't an investment for my retirement fund. It’s a venture-capital style bet on one of the last true frontiers left on Earth.

Disclaimer: I am long PELI. This is not financial advice. Do your own due diligence.

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