September 18, 2025 - The top 20% of counties that voted for Harris had a TFR of 1.37. State-level data reveals a similar relationship between partisanship and fertility. Democratic states have much lower fertility rates than Republican states.

April 24, 2025 - Republicans, along with independents who lean to the Republican Party, are much more likely than Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents to mention words like “God,” “freedom,” “country,” “Jesus” and “religion.” Democrats are much more likely than Republicans to mention words like “new,” “dog,” “reading,” “outside,” “daughter” and “nature.” (Democrats are most likely to mention “new” in the context of learning something new. But some also mention it in the context of new experiences, meeting new people or other forms of exploration.) Below, we explore these partisan differences in more detail and look at how attitudes in the United States compare internationally, based on surveys conducted among 16 other publics in spring 2021. ... This analysis examines Americans’ responses to an open-ended survey question about what gives them meaning in life and explores how responses in the United States differ from those elsewhere in the world.

When we compare Republican to Democratic-leaning counties in Figure 3 we find some · evidence that relative Democratic fertility falls, with an average quarterly effect of 0.087 · births per 1,000 women (0.6% of the 1999 average birth rate).

The longitudinal · correlation studies provide two significant findings: (1) the correlation between fertility · and GOP performance rose steadily between 1940 and 1980, with Republican candidates · benefiting from the Fertility Gap in every election from 1960 onward; and (2) from 1992 ·

November 18, 2020 - The use of state controls (and some robustness tests I ran in large states with many counties) suggests this effect isn’t driven by unique features of states: within Red states or Blue states, and controlling for county racial and ethnic characteristics and population densities, Republican counties have higher birth rates. This is particularly astonishing given that Democrats perform very well in counties with many Hispanic and black voters, who have higher birth rates than non-Hispanic white Americans (and indeed, the more non-Hispanic whites in a county, the lower its birth rate in my models).

May 25, 2022 - The use of state controls (and some robustness tests I ran in large states with many counties) suggests this effect isn’t driven by unique features of states: within Red states or Blue states, and controlling for county racial and ethnic characteristics and population densities, Republican counties have higher birth rates. This is particularly astonishing given that Democrats perform very well in counties with many Hispanic and black voters, who have higher birth rates than non-Hispanic white Americans (and indeed, the more non-Hispanic whites in a county, the lower its birth rate in my models).

August 15, 2024 - When it comes to raising birth rates, the hard truth may be that there just isn’t a set of policy solutions that will make most American women go from having one or two children in their 20s and 30s to having three or four or more beginning in their teen years—or at least, there isn’t a set of policy solutions that aren’t terrifyingly cruel, invasive, and deadly. Democrats also shouldn’t accept the right-wing narrative that children are the only path to a worthwhile or meaningful life.

June 20, 2025 - The birth gap between the states that voted Republican and Democratic in the past presidential election has fallen from about 475,000 births in 2015 to approximately 294,000 births in 2023.

October 7, 2024 - By 2019, Republicans wanted more children than ever compared to their Democratic peers, a pattern the researchers believe may affect demographic trends in the United States. The study was motivated by a growing interest in how identities shape ...

December 19, 2024 - The evidence suggests causality flows in both directions, as we noted in 2020. Additionally, there are further structural variables to consider. Differences in education levels, for instance, explain much of the variance in birth rates between Republican and Democratic counties.

2 weeks ago - Today, registered voters under 30 prefer a Democrat for Congress over a Republican by nearly two-to-one (47% vs. 24%). These voters are also far more likely than older adults to say they prefer another candidate or are not sure who they will support in November. Voters 30 to 49 also prefer Democratic candidates by 42% to 35%. While in most recent elections voters in this age group have tended to back Democratic candidates, those who turned out in the 2024 presidential election split their votes about evenly between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Among those 50 to 64, 44% prefer a Republican candidate, while 39% prefer a Democratic candidate...

October 30, 2024 - The birth gap between the states that voted Republican and Democratic in the past presidential election has fallen from about 475,000 births in 2015 to approximately 294,000 births in 2023.

Democratic counties, a shift amounting to 1.2 to 2.2% of the national fertility rate. In addition, Hispanics see fertility fall relative to non-Hispanics, especially compared to rural or evangelical ... Republicans’ surged from 12 to 46% (Gallup, 2017).

The paper’s authors find that this difference between Republican versus Democratic babies conceived in the first two years of the Trump presidency amounts to between 1 and 2% of the national birth rate.

October 27, 2025 - The 20 U.S. counties with the largest margins for Trump had an average total fertility rate of 1.76; the 20 counties with the highest margin for Harris had a TFR of 1.37 in 2024. Yenor and Stone infer, “Democrats increasingly seem to be the ...

April 25, 2024 - Notably, the states with the highest birthrates are overwhelmingly Republican, and those with the lowest are disproportionately Democratic. What, if anything, can this tell us? While it can be perilous to make quick assumptions about correlations, ...

July 8, 2022 - “The gap is actually 41 percent.” Data on the U.S. birth rate from the General Social Survey confirms this trend — a random sample of 100 conservative adults will raise 208 children, while 100 liberal adults will raise a mere 147 kids.

October 1, 2021 - As the party commonly against abortion and sex education, you would assume Republicans give birth at a greater rate than Democrats. If these babies grow up to be Republican, that would shift the political paradigm. I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns. ... Finally, this conservative fertility advantage probably will not give conservatives some inevitable long-term political edge. Fertility rates are falling for conservatives just as much as liberals. Given the size of the fertility differential between conservatives and liberals, it doesn’t actually take a large amount of ideology switching to offset this higher birth rate. Thus, while conservatives may wish that their fertility advantage could afford a durable political majority, that hope is probably just as fleeting as the now-silly-sounding claims of progressives a decade ago that immigration would create a durable Democratic m

December 15, 2025 - On the other hand, senators with four or more kids constitute only 8% in the Democratic Party and a whopping 26% in the Republican Party.” · It is not just politicians but voters that show this pattern of conservatives having more children.

November 22, 2024 - “Republican states (those that Trump won in 2020) generally have markedly higher fertility rates than Democratic ones (those that Biden won), suggesting that more men and women feel confident about starting and raising families in red states ...